Blog post by Dr. Türkan Ertuna Lagrand, Assistant Professor of EU Law in the Department of International and European Law at Utrecht University.
Following the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024, the return of Syrian refugees has become one of the most debated issues in host countries. A number of European states have quickly announced that they would temporarily suspend processing asylum applications from Syria. The Netherlands, for instance, has introduced a six-month ‘decision and departure moratorium’ due to there being not enough information available to carefully decide on asylum applications from Syrians. But what could host states do in the meantime to support the Syrians residing in their territory to plan for the future?
While a large proportion of Syrians have expressed a desire to return to Syria, the situation in the country remains highly fractured and fragile, with entire neighborhoods, livelihoods, institutions, and the economy in ruins. Due to this uncertain situation, UNHCR has emphasized both the importance of ensuring that Syrians can still lodge asylum applications and the need for them to make informed decisions about returning, in a voluntary and sustainable manner.
However, there is reason to be hopeful for a durable solution in Syria that will drastically change the circumstances that made Syrians refugees. Such a potential change corresponds to one of the conditions under which refugee status can cease under Article 1(C) of the 1951 Refugee Convention as well as Article 11 of EU Qualification Directive, namely that the circumstances in connection with which the refugee has been recognized as such have ceased to exist. The UNHCR Guidelines on Cessation of Refugee Status for Ceased Circumstances states that in order to lead to the cessation of refugee status, the change in circumstances in the country of origin must be fundamental and enduring in nature. Especially in situations where the changes have taken place violently, such as through the overthrow of a regime, a longer period of time will need to have elapsed before the durability of change can be tested (para 14). In any event, it should be ensured that the return of refugees is on a voluntary basis. In order to safeguard the voluntary nature of their return decision, refugees should be able to examine the conditions in their country of origin, which the UNHCR indicates in its Guidelines on Cessation should be facilitated by ‘Go and See Visits’, where feasible (para 25). These are visits by internally or internationally displaced persons to their former places of residence to assess the damage and security conditions back home before they can make an informed decision. One country which has recently activated a ‘Go and See Visit’ scheme to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees is Türkiye.
The legal status of Syrians in Türkiye
Türkiye is home to around three million Syrian citizens registered under the Temporary Protection regime. As Türkiye retains the geographic limitation to the 1951 Refugee Convention, it does not recognize refugees from outside of Europe. Asylum seekers from outside of Europe are allowed to reside in the country temporarily until they are resettled to a third country in accordance with Article 62 of the Turkish Law on Foreigners and International Protection. In 2014, Syrian citizens living in Turkey have been brought under the current Temporary Protection regime (for a comparative analysis of the Turkish Temporary Protection regime with that of the EU applying to Ukrainian citizens, see the commentary here). Scholars have clarified that the Temporary Protection regime applying to Syrian citizens in Türkiye affords the same protections as regular international protection regimes. Similarly, the conditions under which the Temporary Protection regime is to be terminated parallels the conditions under which refugee status can cease, albeit with a Presidential Decree, and the return should be organized on voluntary basis.
‘Go and See Visits’ facilitated by Türkiye: Authorized Exit-Entry Procedures for Voluntary Return
On the 21st of December 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Trade published a Circular to regulate the return of Syrian citizens, with a focus on customs related issues. According to official figures, 81,576 Syrian citizens have returned from Türkiye to their country of origin in the period from 9 December 2024 until 29 January 2025. However, many Syrians are still doubting whether to return.
Since the decision on whether to return is heavily influenced by factors such the state of property left behind, the safety of neighbourhoods, as well as the infrastructure and services in the relevant regions, Türkiye has introduced a ‘Go and See’ scheme, namely the Authorized Exit-Entry Procedures for Voluntary Return. This is a permit that allows Syrians under Temporary Protection to travel to Syria for a short period of time with a view to supporting the voluntary return process. Accordingly, from 1 January 2025 until 1 July 2025, one person from each Syrian family living in Türkiye will be able to travel back and forth to Syria for a maximum of three times via designated border crossings. The identification cards of those who travel back and forth during this period will not be confiscated and they will retain their protection status.
A need for flexible schemes facilitating the voluntary return of Syrians
Following a destructive 14-year conflict, Syrian families – with many members born and raised outside of Syria – are contemplating whether or not to return. This is not a decision that can be made without knowing the situation, not only in the country in general but also in the direct surroundings of the former homes of these families. Host countries would need to support Syrians in this process by facilitating their voluntary return.
In the uncertain times that lie ahead, it does not suffice to suspend processing the pending asylum applications until the conditions in Syria become clearer. It is equally crucial that host states develop flexible schemes such as those regulating on ‘Go and See Visits’ to support the voluntary return process so that Syrians living in these states can decide whether and how to return in an informed manner. This is because the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Syria does not only pertain to the political and economic stability of the country, but also to the state of the property and livelihoods left behind by families, and the feasibility of rebuilding what has been lost. This will be the key to ensuring that their returns are sustainable. In the absence of flexible schemes enabling refugees to go back to their former homes and assess the situation without the fear of losing their status in host countries, it is not very likely that many Syrians would choose to return. The Turkish experience can serve as a valuable model for other countries, such as Germany, which is considering a similar initiative, and the Netherlands, where Parliament passed a motion on February 18 for the government to develop a ‘Go and See’ scheme for Syrians living in the Netherlands.
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